A few cents, a lot of money
Two bettors place exactly the same 200 bets, at average odds around 2.00, and win half of them. The first takes his usual bookmaker's price: 2.00. The second compares and takes the best: 2.08 on average.
- First bettor: 100 wins × 1.00 − 100 losses = 0 units.
- Second bettor: 100 wins × 1.08 − 100 losses = +8 units.
Same skill, same bets, same luck: only the price differs. Over a season, comparing odds is often worth more than any "hot tip".
Why odds differ
Each bookmaker sets its own margin, follows the market at its own pace and manages its own risk. On the same match, the gap between the best and worst price is commonly 3 to 6%, and more on lower leagues, totals and handicaps. The margin calculator shows how much each one takes.
The best price is not enough
Taking the best price means paying less. It does not necessarily mean winning. If a team's true chance is 45%, its fair odds are 2.22; the "best price on the market" at 2.15 is still a losing bet on average (0.45 × 2.15 − 1 = −3.3%).
So there are two comparisons to make:
- Between bookmakers: never pay more than you need to for a bet.
- Against the fair price: to know whether the bet is worth playing at all. That is the definition of a value bet.
The fair price comes from the market references, Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange, with their margin removed (the guide on sharp bookmakers explains why).
How to compare efficiently
- Hold several accounts. Three to five bookmakers licensed in your country capture most of the gaps.
- Compare the same line. "Over 2.5 goals" is not "over 2.75 goals". A different line ruins any comparison.
- Be quick. Gaps close within minutes. A price seen ten minutes ago may be gone.
- Account for commission. On a betting exchange, commission lowers the effective odds: 2.20 with 5% commission is worth 2.14 (see the guide on betting exchanges).
What Proba Bet does
For every bet, Proba Bet shows the true chance, the fair price and the prices at the bookmakers you have chosen, best first, with the recommended stake. The bookmaker pages show, country by country, which bookmakers are covered and how many value bets Babeth finds there. On the Sharp plan, the full comparator gives the true chance and the best market price on thousands of markets, even when the edge is negative.
To check a price by hand, the odds checker gives the true chance for matches in the next four days.
Key takeaways
Comparing odds is the simplest way to improve your results: same bets, better price. But the best price is only a good bet if it beats the fair price. Both comparisons together make a profitable bettor.