Questions people ask Babeth

No. Nobody here predicts winners. Proba Bet measures the real chance of each outcome from odds widely regarded as the sharpest on the market (Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange) and shows you where a bookmaker is paying more than that chance justifies. It is arithmetic, not opinions.

Yes. Every night she replays the last 14 days with six different models, on bets they had never seen, and only replaces the model in charge with one that does clearly better. She also learns, sport by sport, which filters to lift, and records line-ups, absences and the weather with every bet to check whether they help. Everything is published on the "How Babeth learns" page.

From Pinnacle, the bookmaker known for very sharp odds, with its margin removed by the “power” method (which takes more off the underdogs), blended 40 % with Betfair Exchange, one of the most liquid betting exchanges in the world (midpoint of the back/lay spread), when the exchange is liquid enough. A learned correction is added only once it has proven that it improves accuracy. The result is an estimate of the true probability, checked against real scores every day on the Results page.

Yes, but the edge shown when a bet appears (about 3 % on average) is not the real edge: part of it disappears before kick-off. What remains at the close is what counts, and we publish it bet by bet on the Results page. An edge does not remove variance: you will have losing weeks. The closing line value on your tracker tells you, independently of luck, whether your edge is real.

About forty: 25 European and international bookmakers (1xBet, Betsson, Unibet, William Hill, Marathon, Winamax, Betclic, PMU, Tipico…) and 15 British bookmakers for players in the UK and Ireland (Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Betfred…), compared with two references, Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange. By default you see those licensed in your country plus international ones; in Settings, you choose your own.

Football, tennis, basketball, hockey, American football, baseball, MMA, boxing, handball, rugby, cricket, Aussie rules — with odds from about forty bookmakers, including 15 British ones for players in the UK (and in Ireland for Paddy Power and BoyleSports). And thanks to Betfair Exchange, fair probabilities for everything the exchange prices: lower-tier tennis, darts, snooker, esports, golf, F1 and motorsport, volleyball… Those get probability pages, without value bets (no bookmaker to compare).

Yes. On every matched bet the app shows the best available price on Betfair Exchange with a direct link to the market. Keep the exchange commission in mind (usually 5% of net winnings): it is not deducted from the displayed price. The exchange mainly serves as a second reference to compute the true chance.

Yes, on Pro and Sharp. In “My bets”, every started bet shows the score, refreshed every 30 seconds for the competitions our scores feed covers (major football leagues, NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB…), and its live win chance, computed from Betfair Exchange or Pinnacle up to 3 minutes behind. As soon as the end of the match is known (official score or Betfair market), the bet is settled (with the final score when we have it) and Babeth sends you the result on Telegram and as a push notification. On every plan, the result (and the final score when available) is filled in automatically.

We measure it on every priced outcome, not only on our bets: each published probability is compared with the official result (announced / realized curve, Brier score, per sport). Once a sport has enough results, a correction learned and validated out of sample applies, capped at 3 points. Everything is public on the Results page.

A bet beats the closing line when the odds taken are better than the fair odds at kick-off: one of the most reliable signs of a real edge, the one professionals use. Every month, our share of bets that beat the close is published on the Results page. If it drops below 50% over a month of at least 100 settled bets, every Pro and Sharp subscriber gets the next month free, credited on their next invoice.

A mispriced line doesn't last: the bookmaker often fixes it within minutes. Sharp gets each bet as soon as Babeth detects it, Pro 90 seconds after it was first detected, Starter after 5 minutes and Free after 15 minutes. The bet of the day is visible to everyone at the same time.

Your personal link is in your account. When a friend creates an account with it and then subscribes to a paid plan, you each get one month of their plan free, deducted from the next invoice. No limit.

Never. Proba Bet never touches your bookmaker accounts or your money. You place your bets yourself and log them in one tap so Babeth can settle them and track them.

You sign up with your email, no card. For 14 days you have the Pro plan. Afterwards you drop to the Free plan unless you choose a subscription. Nothing is ever charged without your explicit choice.

Yes, any time, in one click from your account. You keep access until the end of the paid period.

Proba Bet is decision-support software: it takes no bets and sells no tips. Betting itself is subject to the laws of your country. The service is reserved for adults, and Babeth will always remind you that gambling carries risks.

The full comparator (the true chance on every market, not only mispriced bets), line-move alerts from the reference bookmaker, one bankroll per bookmaker and API access (20,000 requests a day). Everything is computed from our own data feed: there is nothing else to subscribe to.

Because a bookmaker often fixes a mispriced odd within minutes. Fifteen minutes is enough to check that Babeth tells the truth, not enough to act on every bet. Starter sees each bet 5 minutes after it appears, Pro 90 seconds, Sharp the same second; the 14-day trial runs at Pro speed.

When a bet enters Babeth's selection and your plan's delay has passed, it is sent to you at the bookmaker you use, with your stake. Starter (5 minutes after a bet appears): e-mail (at most one per hour) and push notification. Pro (90 seconds after) and Sharp (as soon as it is detected): Telegram with Placed / Skip buttons, automatic recording in your tracker, /balance, the Sunday report and “Ask Babeth” (free text, slip photo), by linking your account from Settings in one click. Sharp also receives line moves.

Cheaper (€29 against $99–209), two references instead of one (Pinnacle + Betfair Exchange), verifiable public proof and your licensed bookmakers in your language. But no live betting (your bets are, however, tracked live on Pro and Sharp) and fewer bookmakers: our comparison page says it all, including what we do not do.