Public track record · updated every 5 minutes
Every bet in Babeth's selection, settled with the real score
Every bet in Babeth's selection is recorded the moment it enters it, at that scan's odds, then published here as soon as it is settled with the official final score (bets in progress are counted under “Open bets”). One bet = one line, at the best reliable bookmaker. This is the proof.
Recorded live
When a bookmaker pays too much, the bet is written down at the odds of the scan where it enters the selection (confirmed over two scans), before it is settled.
Settled by the official score
A few hours after the match, the result is read from the settled Betfair Exchange market or the official scores feed, and the bet is settled: won, lost or void.
Published in full
Every line, including the losing ones, with the closing line value. Nothing is deleted.
Why the closing line first? It is the market price at kick-off, when all information is known. Beating the close 6 times out of 10 proves the bet had value, regardless of luck; ROI takes thousands of bets to become significant.
Probability accuracy
Collecting: 0 outcomes settled. The curve and the scores appear from 200.
Each reference is de-vigged, then blended (Pinnacle 60 %, Betfair Exchange 40 %). Once a sport family has at least 500 settled outcomes, Babeth learns a correction (isotonic regression) validated on the most recent 30 %: it is applied only if it improves the out-of-sample Brier score, capped at 3 points, and shrunk while the sample is small. Without data: no correction.
Method: flat stake on every bet in Babeth's selection (since engine v1.13, late October 2026: predicted real edge of at least 2.5 % from the model picked every night, guardrails learned sport by sport; from v1.11 to v1.13: predicted real edge of at least 2.5 %, odds 1.30 to 4.00, match result or total, reliable bookmakers and leagues; before: edge 2 to 6 %, same guardrails; always: fresh odds, one outcome per market, confirmed over two scans), at the odds of the scan where it enters the selection, no reinvestment, settled with the official final score; bets without an available score are excluded. Past results do not guarantee future results. Some bookmakers limit winning accounts.