NCAA Football · United States ·
Michigan State Spartans – Nebraska Cornhuskers: the real probabilities
NCAA Football · United States. The chance of each outcome once the bookmaker margin is removed — what a bet is truly worth.
Reference: Pinnacle (margin removed)
Winner
| Outcome | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan State Spartans | 32.9 % | 3.04 |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers | 67.1 % | 1.49 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48.5 | 50.3 % | 49.7 % | 1.99 / 2.01 |
Handicap
| Handicap | Michigan State Spartans | Nebraska Cornhuskers |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan State Spartans +5.5 | 49.6 % | 50.4 % |
Updated 4 min ago · Probabilities: margin removed from the sharpest bookmaker's odds (power method), blended with the market consensus. This is not a prediction: a 60 % favourite loses 4 times out of 10.
Is a bookmaker wrong about Michigan State Spartans – Nebraska Cornhuskers?
Babeth checks nearly 30 bookmakers against these probabilities every 45 seconds. When one pays more than the fair odds, she tells you where, at what price and how much to stake.
How are these probabilities computed?
Bookmakers build a margin into their odds: the implied probabilities add up to more than 100 %. We start from the sharpest bookmaker on the market — the one whose prices best predict results — and remove that margin (power method) so the probabilities sum to exactly 100 %.
We then blend in the consensus of the other bookmakers, weighted by how many quote the market. The result is a fair probability and a fair odds figure: the price at which a bet neither wins nor loses money in the long run.
It is not a prediction. A 65 % favourite loses more than one time in three. The only way to make money is to be paid more than the real chance justifies — which is exactly what the app looks for.