EFL Trophy ·
Gillingham – Cambridge Utd: the real probabilities
EFL Trophy. The chance of each outcome once the bookmaker margin is removed — what a bet is truly worth.
Reference: Betfair Exchange (mid of back/lay) · 2 k€ traded on the exchange · low liquidity, indicative probabilities
1X2
| Outcome | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham | 38.3 % | 2.61 |
| Draw | 26.3 % | 3.80 |
| Cambridge Utd | 35.4 % | 2.83 |
Total goals
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 51.4 % | 48.6 % | 1.94 / 2.06 |
Updated 2 min ago · Probabilities: margin removed from the sharpest bookmaker's odds (power method), blended with the market consensus. This is not a prediction: a 60 % favourite loses 4 times out of 10.
Is a bookmaker wrong about Gillingham – Cambridge Utd?
Babeth checks 40+ bookmakers against these probabilities every 45 seconds. When one pays more than the fair odds, she tells you where, at what price and how much to stake.
How are these probabilities computed?
Bookmakers build a margin into their odds: the implied probabilities add up to more than 100 %. We start from the sharpest bookmaker on the market — the one whose prices best predict results — and remove that margin (power method) so the probabilities sum to exactly 100 %.
We then blend in the consensus of the other bookmakers, weighted by how many quote the market. The result is a fair probability and a fair odds figure: the price at which a bet neither wins nor loses money in the long run.
It is not a prediction. A 65 % favourite loses more than one time in three. The only way to make money is to be paid more than the real chance justifies — which is exactly what the app looks for.
For events Pinnacle doesn't price — lower-tier tennis, darts, snooker, esports, motorsport, golf… — the reference is Betfair Exchange, the most liquid betting market in the world: the probability is the midpoint between the best price to back and the best price to lay, renormalised to total 100 %. When liquidity is low we say so: probabilities are then indicative.