DPW Tour Open de France 2026 ·
DPW Tour Open de France 2026: who will win?
DPW Tour Open de France 2026. The win probability of each of the 69 contenders, from the most liquid market in the world — what a bet is really worth.
Reference: Betfair Exchange (mid of back/lay) · 766 € traded on the exchange · low liquidity, indicative probabilities
Winner
| Contender | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Zanotti | 11.2 % | 8.94 |
| Jens Dantorp | 11.2 % | 8.95 |
| Kota Kaneko | 11.2 % | 8.96 |
| Elvis Smylie | 11.2 % | 8.96 |
| Zander Lombard | 11.2 % | 8.96 |
| Yuto Katsuragawa | 11.2 % | 8.96 |
| Scott Jamieson | 11.2 % | 8.96 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 2.4 % | 41.77 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 2.1 % | 46.80 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 2.1 % | 47.89 |
| Viktor Hovland | 1.7 % | 58.08 |
| Ryan Gerard | 1.4 % | 74.06 |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 0.5 % | 191.12 |
| Eugenio Chacarra | 0.5 % | 206.64 |
| Angel Ayora | 0.5 % | 208.05 |
| Jeff Winther | 0.5 % | 217.45 |
| Guido Migliozzi | 0.4 % | 250.91 |
| Thomas Detry | 0.4 % | 268.14 |
| Cam Smith | 0.4 % | 283.36 |
| Thomas Pieters | 0.3 % | 298.53 |
| Victor Perez | 0.3 % | 298.53 |
| Michael Kim | 0.3 % | 298.53 |
| Sam Bairstow | 0.3 % | 307.54 |
| Bud Cauley | 0.3 % | 328.68 |
| Ewen Ferguson | 0.3 % | 328.68 |
| Andy Sullivan | 0.3 % | 358.61 |
| Yannik Paul | 0.3 % | 380.54 |
| Joe Dean | 0.3 % | 387.84 |
| Calum Hill | 0.3 % | 388.31 |
| Francesco Laporta | 0.3 % | 388.31 |
| Antoine Rozner | 0.3 % | 404.05 |
| Nathan Kimsey | 0.2 % | 425.45 |
| Adrien Saddier | 0.2 % | 455.95 |
| Nacho Elvira | 0.2 % | 470.92 |
| Shaun Norris | 0.2 % | 478.40 |
| Adrian Meronk | 0.2 % | 486.41 |
| Joost Luiten | 0.2 % | 497.69 |
| Tom Vaillant | 0.2 % | 500.71 |
| Paul Waring | 0.2 % | 511.18 |
| Gregorio De Leo | 0.2 % | 511.85 |
| Filippo Celli | 0.2 % | 515.02 |
| Thriston Lawrence | 0.2 % | 525.07 |
| Romain Langasque | 0.2 % | 531.81 |
| Manuel Elvira | 0.2 % | 533.47 |
| Martin Couvra | 0.2 % | 562.38 |
| Marcus Armitage | 0.2 % | 568.92 |
| Kazuma Kobori | 0.2 % | 611.59 |
| Julien Guerrier | 0.2 % | 638.18 |
| Johannes Veerman | 0.2 % | 638.83 |
| Maximilian Steinlechner | 0.1 % | 664.44 |
| Todd Clements | 0.1 % | 668.79 |
| Brandon Stone | 0.1 % | 673.31 |
| Adrian Otaegui | 0.1 % | 698.96 |
| Matthieu Pavon | 0.1 % | 707.47 |
| Dan Bradbury | 0.1 % | 707.47 |
| Frederic Lacroix | 0.1 % | 713.52 |
| Angel Hidalgo | 0.1 % | 724.84 |
| Marcus Kinhult | 0.1 % | 741.32 |
| Joel Girrbach | 0.1 % | 741.32 |
| Oihan Guillamoundeguy | 0.1 % | 741.32 |
| Alexander Levy | 0.1 % | 940.90 |
| Ross Fisher | 0.1 % | 1241.99 |
| Sean Crocker | 0.1 % | 1470.48 |
| Grant Forrest | 0.1 % | 1524.82 |
| Niklas Lemke | 0.1 % | 1783.79 |
| Ashun Wu | 0.1 % | 1868.74 |
| Brandon Robinson Thompson | 0.1 % | 2119.44 |
| Shubhankar Sharma | 0.0 % | 2718.16 |
| Stefano Mazzoli | 0.0 % | 2718.16 |
Updated 3 min ago · Probabilities: margin removed from the sharpest bookmaker's odds (power method), blended with the market consensus. This is not a prediction: a 60 % favourite loses 4 times out of 10.
Is a bookmaker overpaying on DPW Tour Open de France 2026?
Babeth checks 40+ bookmakers against these probabilities every 45 seconds. When one pays more than the fair odds, she tells you where, at what price and how much to stake.
How are these probabilities computed?
Bookmakers build a margin into their odds: the implied probabilities add up to more than 100 %. We start from the sharpest bookmaker on the market — the one whose prices best predict results — and remove that margin (power method) so the probabilities sum to exactly 100 %.
We then blend in the consensus of the other bookmakers, weighted by how many quote the market. The result is a fair probability and a fair odds figure: the price at which a bet neither wins nor loses money in the long run.
It is not a prediction. A 65 % favourite loses more than one time in three. The only way to make money is to be paid more than the real chance justifies — which is exactly what the app looks for.
For events Pinnacle doesn't price — lower-tier tennis, darts, snooker, esports, motorsport, golf… — the reference is Betfair Exchange, the most liquid betting market in the world: the probability is the midpoint between the best price to back and the best price to lay, renormalised to total 100 %. When liquidity is low we say so: probabilities are then indicative.