Nations League ·
Armenia – Latvia: the real probabilities
Nations League. The chance of each outcome once the bookmaker margin is removed — what a bet is truly worth.
Reference: Betfair Exchange (mid of back/lay) · 1 k€ traded on the exchange
1X2
| Outcome | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Armenia | 55.2 % | 1.81 |
| Draw | 25.7 % | 3.89 |
| Latvia | 19.1 % | 5.24 |
Updated 5 min ago · Probabilities: margin removed from Pinnacle's odds (power method), blended with Betfair Exchange (40 %) when it is liquid enough. This is not a prediction: a 60 % favourite loses 4 times out of 10.
Is a bookmaker wrong about Armenia – Latvia?
Babeth checks about forty bookmakers against these probabilities every minute. When one pays more than the fair odds, she tells you where, at what price and how much to stake.
How are these probabilities computed?
Bookmakers build a margin into their odds: the implied probabilities add up to more than 100 %. We start from the sharpest bookmaker on the market — the one whose prices best predict results — and remove that margin (power method) so the probabilities sum to exactly 100 %.
When Betfair Exchange also prices the market with enough liquidity (at least €1,000 matched, spread ≤ 6 %), we blend the two: 60 % Pinnacle, 40 % Betfair. A calibration correction is added only if it has improved accuracy out of sample. The result is a fair probability and a fair odds figure: the price at which a bet neither wins nor loses money in the long run.
It is not a prediction. A 65 % favourite loses more than one time in three. The only way to make money is to be paid more than the real chance justifies — which is exactly what the app looks for.
For events Pinnacle doesn't price — lower-tier tennis, darts, snooker, esports, motorsport, golf… — the reference is Betfair Exchange, the most liquid betting market in the world: the probability is the midpoint between the best price to back and the best price to lay, renormalised to total 100 %. When liquidity is low we say so: probabilities are then indicative.