MMA ·
Alvi Dasuyev – Jaden Ortega: the real probabilities
MMA. The chance of each outcome once the bookmaker margin is removed — what a bet is truly worth.
Reference: Pinnacle (margin removed) · 394 € traded on the exchange
Winner
| Outcome | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Alvi Dasuyev | 70.4 % | 1.42 |
| Jaden Ortega | 29.6 % | 3.38 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 45.0 % | 55.0 % | 2.22 / 1.82 |
Updated 4 min ago · Probabilities: margin removed from the sharpest bookmaker's odds (power method), blended with the market consensus. This is not a prediction: a 60 % favourite loses 4 times out of 10.
Is a bookmaker wrong about Alvi Dasuyev – Jaden Ortega?
Babeth checks nearly 30 bookmakers against these probabilities every 45 seconds. When one pays more than the fair odds, she tells you where, at what price and how much to stake.
How are these probabilities computed?
Bookmakers build a margin into their odds: the implied probabilities add up to more than 100 %. We start from the sharpest bookmaker on the market — the one whose prices best predict results — and remove that margin (power method) so the probabilities sum to exactly 100 %.
We then blend in the consensus of the other bookmakers, weighted by how many quote the market. The result is a fair probability and a fair odds figure: the price at which a bet neither wins nor loses money in the long run.
It is not a prediction. A 65 % favourite loses more than one time in three. The only way to make money is to be paid more than the real chance justifies — which is exactly what the app looks for.